When the largest U.S. farm group sent 59 shoppers into supermarkets to check the prices of food for a fall meal, they found the tally, on average, was down by a surprisingly large 8 percent from a year ago. Of the 16 items on the shopping list, 13 cost less than last September — eggs, chicken, beef roast, shredded cheddar cheese and whole milk were down by 10 percent or more.
The American Farm Bureau Federation released the results of its annual “Fall Harvest” survey a few days after USDA forecast grocery prices would stay flat this year and that deflation was a possibility. AFBF conducts quarterly surveys of grocery prices. Its “Summer Cookout” survey, ahead of Independence Day, showed prices up by less than 1 percent. Its 2015 “Fall Harvest” report had a marginal decline, less than 1 percent.
The average cost of the fall shopping list was $49.70, down $4.40 or 8 percent from 2015. Dairy prices are down due to a global glut. Meat prices are down because the strong dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive, so there is a larger domestic supply. The only items to go up in price were bagged salad, apples and potatoes.