For the third month in a row, the USDA lowered its forecast of grocery price inflation this year. The monthly Food Price Outlook estimated that grocery prices would rise by an average of 6.3 percent this year, compared to 11.4 percent in 2022.
USDA economists said pork prices would drop 2.5 percent this year and egg prices would rise 16.6 percent — roughly half the 32.2 percent rise seen in 2022. “Retail egg prices have declined since peaking in January 2023, in the absence of a confirmed case of HPAI (bird flu) in egg layers since December 2022.”
In its first forecast of the year for grocery prices, the USDA projected 8.6 percent inflation. It lowered the forecast to 7.8 percent the following month and to 6.6 percent last month. The long-term average for food price inflation is 2.5 percent a year.