Grocery prices will rise a modest 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2025, the smallest increases since 2019 but modestly higher than previously forecast, said USDA economists. Beef prices were expected to rise 5.6 percent this year, faster than its usual annual increase, but slow down in the new year.
A month ago, the Food Price Outlook forecast a grocery price increase of 1 percent this year and 0.7 percent next year. Over the long term, supermarket prices increase by an average of 2.7 percent annually. Grocery prices soared 11.4 percent during the economy-wide inflation wave in 2022 and slowed to 5 percent last year. In 2019, food prices nearly stood still at an inflation rate of 0.9 percent.
In the new forecast, the USDA said beef and pork prices would rise more than previously expected. Beef would exceed its 20-year average of 4.3 percent a year in 2024 and rise 3 percent in 2025. Pork would rise 1.4 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year, a faster rate than forecast in July but still below the long-term average of 2.5 percent annually. Strong consumer demand and smaller supply are boosting beef prices.