Democrats’ chances of defeating Senate Judiciary chair Charles Grassley, a longtime Agriculture Committee member, were never great and are fading like the shortening days of autumn, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “With Trump now positioned as a slight favorite to win the Hawkeye State, there is no sign that Grassley is in any danger,” says the political website, rating the race as “safe Republican.”
Previously, the Crystal Ball rated the Iowa race as “likely Republican,” a reflection of a strong Democratic candidate, former lieutenant governor Patty Judge, and Trump’s early-summer struggles. As Trump improved his standing, GOP candidates for the Senate also have strengthened their standing.
“Democrats now have an even narrower path to taking back the Senate,” said the Crystal Ball. Republicans hold a 54-46 majority at present, so Democrats need a net gain of five seats. They are favored in Illinois and Wisconsin so Democrats need to win three out of the four toss-up races in Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, says the website.
Rep. David Young, a first-term Republican, looks stronger in Iowa’s Third House District, “a swingy Des Moines-based district,” says the Crystal Ball, rating the race as “leans Republican.” Polls suggest Young is the clear leader. “Trump’s strength in Iowa may be buoying Young in a district that, even if it votes for Clinton, is perfectly comfortable backing Republicans for Congress.” Democratic nominee Jim Mowrer is making his second run for the House.