Having failed to win a majority of votes in Tuesday’s special primary, Sen. Luther Strange — and his GOP-establishment backers — now faces the possibility that the controversial nature of his appointment could doom him in the Sept. 26 runoff with former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. If Strange loses to Moore, who twice was removed from the bench for defying federal court orders, opens the door for a Democratic upset in the general election, says Roll Call, which downgraded the GOP hold on the seat to “likely.”
The potential for a Strange loss has implications for both the Democrats’ hopes of reclaiming the Senate, and also for the makeup of the Senate Agriculture Committee, on which Strange sits.
Strange was Alabama’s attorney general before he was appointed by embattled Gov. Robert Bentley to replace Jeff Sessions after President Trump tapped Sessions for his cabinet. Bentley resigned in April, “diminished by a sex scandal that staggered the state, brought him to the brink of impeachment, and prompted a series of criminal investigations,” The New York Times reported.
Some considered Bentley’s appointment of Strange to be improper, given that at the time, Strange’s office was investigating the governor. “Strange continues to carry the baggage of the Bentley appointment and the perception that it was improper,” says Roll Call, which has suggested that “enough anti-Bentley voters may decide to rid themselves of any of the former governor’s legacy and back the polarizing former justice.”
The Strange–Moore victor will face U.S. attorney Doug Jones, who won the Democratic nomination, in the general election on Dec. 12. The winner will complete a Senate term that expires in 2018. The campaign for a full term could start almost as soon as the general election concludes. Alabama has had only Republican senators since 1994, so the GOP race has dominated the media attention.
“It’s undoubtedly a steep climb for Jones in the special general election,” says Roll Call, noting that Jimmy Carter was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Alabama, and that Richard Shelby was the last Democrat to win a Senate race there, in 1992.
In July, Strange brought Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and Senate Agriculture chairman Pat Roberts to farm meetings in the state as a demonstration of power. That same month, EPA administrator Scott Pruitt came to Alabama to discuss environmental regulations with Strange.
The largest farm group in the state, the Alabama Farmers Federation, with 357,000 members, endorsed Strange in late May, a week after the filing deadline. AFF president Jimmy Parnell said FarmPAC backed Strange because, when he was state attorney general, he opposed the Waters of the United States regulation and for his defense of the state property-tax system, including current-use classification of farm and forestland.
Seven of the 10 Democrats on the Senate Agriculture Committee face reelection in 2018, including the senior Democrat on the panel, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Two committee members, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, rank among the most vulnerable Democrats whose terms expire next year; both are from states carried by Trump. Strange is the only Republican on the committee who will face voters in either 2017 or 2018.