Milk production at the average U.S. dairy farm could fall by as much as 1.4 percent due to the addition heat stress on dairy cows from global warming in 2030 when temperatures could be 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher, says an Agriculture Department study. At the state level, annual milk production could drop by 4.4 percent in the hardest-hit states, expected to be in the South, says the report by the Economic Research Service.
“Production effects in the study were mitigated only slightly if dairies moved out of regions forecast to undergo the greatest increases in heat stress, because dairies in these regions contribute relatively little to national output,” says the report. Consumers could pay an additional $110 million a year in higher milk prices so dairy farmers would maintain milk supplies. “While the estimated reductions in output are modest over the next 20 years, losses from heat stress could increase substantially in later decades, depending on the extent of future climate changes,” say the authors, who note the potential for animal agriculture to adapt over time to climate change.