U.S. farm exports, in a slump since setting a record in 2014, are projected to bottom out this year and grow steadily for the rest of the decade, says USDA in long-term projections released ahead of the Ag Outlook Forum next week. “World economic growth, particularly sustained relatively high growth in developing countries, provides a foundation for increases in global food demand, trade and U.S. agricultural exports,” says USDA, with sales aided by demand for grain used in making biofuels. “Although a projected stronger U.S. dollar dampens export demand somewhat, U.S. export value is projected to surpass the 2014 record in the latter half of the projection period.”
Exports hit $152.3 billion in 2014, but the forecast for this year is 14 percent lower, at $131.5 billion, due to sinking prices and smaller demand following large harvests worldwide. Exports are projected for $136.4 billion in 2017 and to reach $155 billion in 2021.
“Exports of high-value products are projected to grow to nearly 74 percent of the value of total U.S. agricultural exports by fiscal year 2024,” said USDA. Much of the growth would be in animal products and horticultural goods. High-value products are expected to provide 70.4 percent of U.S. exports this year.
USDA is scheduled to update its forecast of 2016 farm exports at the Outlook Forum next Thursday and Friday.