Drought in Argentina and lackluster sales in the United States, two of the world’s major suppliers, will reduce global corn exports to their lowest volume in three years, said USDA analysts on Wednesday. Shipments from another leading source, Ukraine, were in question because an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative past March 18 has not been resolved.
Argentina’s corn crop is forecast to be 19 percent smaller than the 2022 crop due to a blistering drought, and exports, now estimated at 28 million tonnes, would be the smallest in five years. The harvest begins in late March.
“The cut [in Argentine exports] comes at a difficult time for global corn supplies,” said the USDA in a monthly circular on world grain. Global stockpiles are low. U.S. exports were forecast at 47 million tonnes this marketing year, compared to nearly 63 million tonnes in the preceding year. Sales were constrained by logistical problems and high commodity prices early in the trade year. “The renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative has yet to be renegotiated from its current March 18 expiration,” said the USDA circular.
The United States is the world’s largest corn grower and traditionally the leader in exports. Although its crop is much smaller than the U.S. crop, Brazil would be the No. 1 exporter this marketing year, with 52 million tonnes. The United States would be second, followed by Argentina and Ukraine.
India has a large corn crop and could be an alternate supplier for some nations that have relied on Argentina. “With strong exports to begin its marketing year, India will again endeavor to help fill the gap left by a major exporter experiencing dry conditions,” said the USDA.
In its monthly WASDE report, the USDA said strong soybean exports would reduce the U.S. stockpile to 210 million bushels, the smallest in seven years, when this year’s crop is ready for harvest.
Argentina’s drought has also scorched it soybean harvest, said the USDA, which pegged the crop at 33 million tonnes, a 20 percent reduction from an estimate a month ago and three-fourths the size of the 2022 crop.
After conferring in Kyiv, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called for an extension of the Black Sea grain deal, which allows Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports despite the Russian invasion, reported Reuters. Russia reportedly sought an easing of Western economic sanctions.