Some 646 million people are food insecure, with diets of less than 2,100 calories a day, in the 76 low- and middle-income nations that are current or traditional food-aid recipients, says the USDA in forecasting a dramatic improvement in the decade ahead. In its Amber Waves magazine, USDA’s Economic Research Service says the food insecurity rate will drop to 8.9 percent in 2027 from its current 17.7 percent, thanks to rising incomes and stable food prices.
ERS economists say the outlook is not quite as rosy as a year ago because incomes are not growing as rapidly as projected in 2016. In addition, several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not seen a drop in food prices because of weak currencies or disruptions in the food supply chain. That said, “food insecurity is projected to become less intense over the coming decade, reflected by a decline in the food gap in all regions and in most countries,” say ERS economists Birgit Meade and Karen Thome. The food gap is the amount of food needed so everyone has enough to eat; now 28.5 million tonnes, it is forecast at 17 million tonnes in 2027.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest food insecurity rate, 31.7 percent of its population, or 301 million people. Half of the people are hungry in nine African nations. Five of those nations — Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Eritrea and Liberia — have suffered civil war. Asia has the largest number of food-insecure people — 315.2 million — but the world’s most populous continent has an insecurity rate of 13.5 percent, well below the global average, said the USDA.