Independent Greg Orman leads Sen Pat Roberts, a senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, by 7 points, 47-40 with 13 percent undecided, in a Gravis Marketing poll of the Senate race in Kansas. Orman is the leader in three of the four most recent polls of the race, all conducted in the closing days of September and completed on Oct 1, compiled by Pollster. Its tracking model puts the race at Orman 42, Roberts 40. It calls the race a toss-up. FiveThirtyEight gives Orman a 65 percent chance of winning.
Kansas is a notoriously Republican state – 47 percent of Kansans identify themselves as Republican compared to 34 percent for Democrats, says Gallup. But “the Republican edge dropped in the first half of this year to its lowest point since 2009,” says the polling company. And, the portion of Kansans who say they are moderate, 36 percent, is nearly as large as those who say they are conservative, 38 percent, “which may be one reason the self-described moderate Orman is doing so well in the polls,” Gallup says. As well, 20 percent say they are liberals.
Among the 10 states with the highest percentage of Republican affiliation, Kansas has the lowest percentage who also say they are conservative. Gallup says Republicans have great strengths and this year’s political drama is “a reminder that ideology and job performance matter, even in states with well-rooted political identities.”