Nearly one-third of the people in 77 low- and middle-income countries are food insecure, meaning they lack consistent access to enough food for a healthy and active lifestyle, said an annual USDA report. The 9.8-percent increase to 1.3 billion people this year included 41.7 million affected by higher food, fuel and fertilizer costs attributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Food security in IFSA counties is expected to deteriorate in 2022 due to the continued effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and high input and commodity prices that have been intensified by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine,” said USDA’s International Food Security Assessment.
In a special article, USDA economists said the number of people who became food insecure because of war in Ukraine and higher input costs could be as high as 134.7 million, compared to the 41.7 million that they used in the body of the report. If the higher figure were used, the increase in food insecurity this year would be 211.7 million people rather than 118.7 million.
“It is difficult to untangle the short-term effect of the invasion from the structural and underlying drivers” of food insecurity, wrote the team of 10 economists. But it was clear that the invasion “compounded the food security situation, especially for counties that trade with the Black Sea region and for consumers who spend a higher proportion of their income on food.”
Russia and Ukraine ordinarily export one-quarter of the wheat on the world market. Ukraine also is the leading international source of sunflower oil and Russia is, by far, the world’s top exporter of fertilizers.
Issued annually, the International Food Security Assessment looks at 77 countries in four regions; North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. This year’s report, which includes projections to 2032, was based on macroeconomic and international commodity price projections as of last month.
“In 2022, results indicate that 32.9 percent of the population of the 77 countries is unable to consume 2,100 kilocalories a day, an average caloric level necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle,” said the report. “By 2032, the number of food insecure people is projected to be 577.3 million, and falling to 12.4 percent of the population,” or one-third of this year’s level.
In July, an annual UN report said nearly one in 10 people worldwide suffered from hunger, an increase of 150 million since the pandemic struck in 2020. “The world is moving in the wrong direction” after years of a declining hunger rate, said the State of Food Security and Nutrition.