Fears of persistently high world food prices, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruption of global supply chains, have subsided but food affordability remains a challenge at the household and macro-economic levels, said three analysts on Tuesday. “These risks will remain high” in developing and import-dependent countries, they said on the IFPRI blog.
“Without major debt relief and additional financial support from the international community, food prices are likely to climb in 2023, posing a continuing threat to the food security of vulnerable households around the world,” wrote IFPRI analysts Rob Vos, Joe Glauber and David Laborde. In the blog, they listed “eight major concerns for food security,” beginning with food prices that remain high by historical standards, although down from the spikes seen soon after the invasion.
The other points of concern included tight global grain supplies, continued high fertilizer prices, the likelihood of reduced crop production in Ukraine, the potential for bad weather in major food-producing regions, food inflation rates that are slow to fall, and high debt that limits the ability of low-income countries to buy food.
“Without any more major disruptions, further global food shortages are not expected to emerge in 2023, though there could be shortages in local hot spots — such as in Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa — where conflict, new weather shocks and lack of import capacity may continue to affect food availability there,” said the blog.