The world’s grain stockpile will shrink nearly 7 percent by the end of the new marketing year, forecasts the International Grains Council. The reason, said the London-based group, is a smaller harvest—down 3 percent—and the second year of record-high consumption. It would be the first decline in world stocks in five years, said the IGC.
Corn stocks would see the biggest decline, down 13 percent, to 197 million tonnes, thanks to both a modest increase in consumption from the record usage forecast for this year and a 4 percent drop in production. The USDA projects that the United States, the world’s largest corn grower and exporter, will harvest 7 percent less corn this year than last.
“Global soybean supplies are likely to stay elevated in 2017/18, but due to rising uptake, stocks could contract by 9 percent year-on-year,” said the IGC’s monthly Grain Market Report. Even so, global stocks of 39 million tonnes would be nearly 20 percent above the five-year average.
While wheat, corn, and soybeans would see smaller global harvests in 2017/18, the rice crop could set a record for the second year in a row. “The outlook for 2017/18 is provisional, but assuming modest area expansion in some producers, the global out-turn could edge up to a new peak,” said the IGC.