Even with the boom years of 2003-14, agriculture’s share of the Midwestern economy is shrinking, to 1 percent or so, said a paper from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said although agriculture makes up a smaller overall share of the region’s economy, some parts of the region depend heavily on income from farming. “In 2012, 11 percent of metropolitan counties and 36 percent of rural counties in the Seventh District had net cash farm income that was greater than 10 percent of total personal income,” says the paper.
Mark Partridge of Ohio State University said the greater diversity of the Midwestern economy would buffer the impact of lower crop and commodity prices. Since the 1980s, the portion of jobs attributed to farming has fallen by one-half in the region, Partridge said. All the same, the paper said, “Some of its rural areas remain more susceptible to a downturn.” Despite the recent drops in crop prices, Partridge stated that the possibility of a crash in farmland values followed by systemic banking problems is quite remote.”