Stung by a trade war with China, ordinarily the purchaser of one-third of the U.S. soybean crop, farmers will switch decisively to corn in 2019, reinstating it as the most widely grown crop in the country, according to a Farm Futures survey of growers. Soybeans are the No. 1 crop this year, for the first time since 1983, due to planting-season expectations of high Chinese demand for the oilseed and lower production costs than corn.
Corn plantings will climb to 90.8 million acres, an increase of 1.7 million acres, in 2019, with most of the additional acreage coming from soybeans, which would drop by 2.1 million acres, to a total of 87.5 million acres, according to the survey. Wheat, cotton, and sorghum plantings would expand by a combined 1.3 million acres.
“Some of the choices appear easy to anyone following the headlines. China’s 25 percent tariff on imports of U.S. soybeans helped pummel prices headed into harvest, and a record crop didn’t help,” said Farm Futures.
For decades, corn has been king among U.S. farmers, but in recent years, soybeans have been growing in popularity while wheat plantings have shrunk. Soybeans, which nearly matched corn in plantings in 2017, took the top spot this year for the first time in 35 years. In February, the USDA predicted that soybeans would “match or exceed corn area for much of the decade,” based on Chinese demand. The think tank FAPRI said corn would lead by 2 million to 3 million acres of the roughly 180 million acres devoted annually to the two crops.
While there is still plenty of time for growers to decide on 2019 crops, Farm Futures said its August survey of intentions has varied by an average of 1.5 percent on corn and 2.5 percent on soybeans compared to the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, issued at the end of March. The USDA report polls tens of thousands of growers on their plans.