A post-harvest survey of growers found they were more optimistic at the end of 2017 than they were during the post-election “Trump Bump” of a year earlier, said DTN/Progressive Farmer. The “confidence index” rating, a combination of farmers’ views of current conditions and their expectations for the coming year, was 113 in the latest poll, up 15 points from a year ago.
“More importantly, farmers’ attitude about their current situation was twice as positive as November 2016, despite growing concerns from ag lenders and little end in sight to flat commodity prices,” said DTN/Progressive Farmer. Economist Robert Hill, who helped create the index, said the reasons for greater optimism were not “factually visible to those of us who follow this as a financial matter in the industry.” Farm income and balance sheets are little changed.
However, stable farm income in 2017, as forecast by the USDA, would mark the end of a steep decline that began in 2013. Hill said that farmers might have been anticipating congressional passage of the tax cut. Growers also have been successful in reducing their operating costs.
To compile its index, DTN/Progressive Farmer surveys growers three times a year: before spring planting, in late summer as crops mature, and in late fall after the harvest. The survey began in 2010.