Purdue’s monthly survey of producers for the Ag Economy Barometer reported a small uptick in farmer confidence with the arrival of the spring planting season despite an undercurrent of pessimism about what corn and soybean prices will be at harvest time. The trio of Purdue economists who analyzed the data said farmer optimism “is rooted in more than expectations for an improvement in revenues.”
Nearly two-thirds of producers, 65 percent, said it was a bad time to make large expenditures, such as buying equipment or buildings. That’s not as dour a sentiment as farmers expressed last fall, but as an indicator of long-term optimism, it “is more muted than the change in overall sentiment measured by the barometer,” said Purdue. In the latest survey, the barometer rose to 130, up six points from a month ago. At the same time, there was a two-point increase in the feeling that this is a bad time for major purchases.
A majority of farmers, 54 percent, said they expect soybean prices to be the same a year from now, while 27 percent expect lower prices and 17 percent expect higher prices. When asked about expectations for corn and soybean futures prices this fall, noticeably fewer farmers said they expect strong prices—corn above $4.25 a bushel, for instance, or soybeans above $10.50 a bushel. Nearly four in 10 producers expect corn futures to be below $3.50 a bushel, and 45 percent expect soybeans below $9 a bushel. Sentiment on soybean prices has shifted greatly since January, said Purdue.