In the largest numbers yet, farmers say they expect a trade deal soon with China and by even larger margins, they believe it will benefit them, said a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday, the same day that President Trump said an agreement could be a year away. “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the (2020 presidential) election for the China deal,” said Trump.
China and the United States are still working on a “phase one” agreement that Trump announced in mid-October and which Trump says will include stronger intellectual-property rules in China and purchases of $40-$50 billion of U.S. agricultural products over two years. The White House says it will impose additional tariffs of 15 percent on $150 billion of Chinese goods on December 15.
The trade war depressed U.S. farm exports by 5.5 percent in the fiscal year that ended on September 30 and knocked China, formerly No. 1, into fourth place among customers for agriculture exports. The USDA forecasts $11 billion in exports to China this fiscal year, roughly half of the $21 billion-a-year volume before the trade war took effect.
Some 57 percent of crop and livestock producers polled by Purdue for its monthly Ag Economy Barometer said they expected “the soybean dispute with China will be settled soon.” It was the highest total in the nine months that Purdue has asked the question. “This represents a marked shift in expectations compared to last summer,” said Purdue, when 22 percent thought a resolution was near.
In addition, 80 percent of operators said they believe “the trade dispute with China will ultimately be resolved in way that benefits U.S. agriculture,” also the highest figure yet. Confidence in a beneficial outcome has been high, usually in the low to mid-70s, since Purdue began asking the question in March.
In London for the NATO summit, Trump told reporters “I have no deadline” for a pact with China and there might be no agreement until late 2020. “But they want to make a deal now, and we’ll see whether or not the deal’s going to be right; it’s got to be right.”
The National Retail Federation called for a speedy resolution. “Waiting another year to resolve the cost and uncertainty of the trade war is a bad deal not just for retailers and their customers but every segment of the economy from farmers who export their crops to small manufacturers who rely on imported parts and materials,” said the trade group.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on CNBC that staff-level discussions continue between China and the United States. No high-level talks were scheduled at present. Ross said Trump has a negotiating advantage over China by being willing to wait for the best possible terms. “His objectives haven’t changed. And if we don’t have a deal, he’s perfectly happy to continue with the tariffs as we have.”
In a pair of Ag Barometer questions that coincided with the UN climate change conference under way in Spain, farmers said they do not worry about climate change and they have not changed their operations because of it. Some 78 percent of producers said they were “not at all worried” or “not too worried” about climate change. A similar 77 percent said they made no change in their operations.