Two out of three crop and livestock producers say they are uncertain or believe Congress is unlikely to enact a new farm bill this year, said a Purdue University survey on Tuesday. Neither the Senate nor House Agriculture committees has unveiled a preliminary version of the bill or scheduled a bill-drafting session, an unusually slow start.
Doubt has increased this spring, said the Ag Economy Barometer, which surveys large-scale producers each month to gauge the health of the farm economy. Some 67 percent of respondents to the latest survey that they believed a farm bill was unlikely this year or were uncertain if passage would occur — an increase of 7 percentage points in one month.
In the latest survey, 32 percent of farmers said a farm bill was “very unlikely” or “somewhat unlikely” this year and 35 percent were “uncertain.” Some 33 percent said a farm bill in 2023 was “somewhat likely” or “very likely.” A month earlier, 29 percent said a farm bill was unlikely, 31 percent were uncertain and 40 percent said it was likely.
Nearly half of corn and soybean farmers said crop insurance was the most important section of the farm bill; 25 percent chose commodity subsidies. Ten percent selected agricultural research and nine percent each chose land stewardship and renewable energy.
Producers were equally divided on whether the farm bill would increase reference prices for corn and soybeans or leave them unchanged; 13 percent said reference prices, an important factor in calculating subsidy payments, would be cut.
The Ag Economy Barometer fell to a reading of 104, its lowest reading since last July, due to weaker commodity prices during May, said Purdue agricultural economists Jim Mintert and Michael Langemeier, who oversee the barometer. Producers were surveyed from May 15-19 for the new report.
Purdue interviews operators with production worth at least $500,000 a year for the barometer. USDA data say the largest 7.4 percent of U.S. farms top $500,000 in annual sales. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.
The Ag Economy Barometer is available here.