U.S. corn exports are climbing for the third year in a row and will be the fourth largest on record this trade year, thanks to the mammoth crop now being harvested and falling market prices, said the Agriculture Department on Thursday. The 15.2 billion-bushel crop would be just a hair smaller than the record set last year.
“Large corn supplies are enhancing U.S. competitiveness, while reduced exportable supplies in other major producers is expected to hamper their outlook,” said USDA analysts in a grains circular released in conjunction with the monthly crop report. “If realized, U.S. exports would be the fourth highest on record,” at 2.3 billion bushels.
The USDA said the soybean crop would be the largest ever, at 4.59 billion bushels, which would be 10 percent larger than the record set in 2023. Yields per acre for corn and soybeans this year would be the highest on record.
Season-average prices will drop to $4.10 a bushel for corn and $10.80 a bushel for soybeans — a decline of 55 cents for corn and $1.70 for soybeans from the farm-gate prices for the 2023 crops, said the USDA in its WASDE report. Large crops worldwide are putting pressure on commodity prices.
“Expectations of a large U.S. [corn] crop have had an outsized pressure on price,” said the Grain: World Markets and Trade circular. Importers responded by booking more corn than usual ahead of the start of the new marketing year.
Brazil and Argentina, two U.S. competitors on the world corn market, will have less corn available for export this trade year than last, said USDA analysts. The United States is the world’s largest corn grower and usually the largest exporter as well, though Brazil topped the United States in the 2022/23 season. Corn and wheat production in the EU will be 8 percent below normal, said the monthly World Agricultural Production report.
Despite large exports, the corn stockpile at the end of this trade year would be nearly 2.1 billion bushels, the largest in six years. The soybean stockpile was forecast at 550 million bushels, also the largest in six years.
World wheat production was forecast in the WASDE report at a record 796.9 million metric tons, aided by a dramatically larger crop in Australia.