The chances of the U.S. Southwest suffering a decade-long drought are at least 50 percent, thanks to climate change, says a team of researchers. A megadrought that persists for at least 30 years is a 20 to 50 percent possibility over the next century. “For the southwestern United States, I’m not optimistic about avoiding real megadroughts,” said assistant professor Toby Ault of Cornell, the lead author of the paper. “As we add greenhouse gases into the atmosphere — and we haven’t put the brakes on stopping this — we are weighting the dice for megadrought conditions.”
States in the West and Southwest should look for drought mitigation strategies to cope with droughts of the future, the scientists said. “We hope this (study) opens up new discussions on how to best use and conserve the precious water that we have,” said Julia Cole, a University of Arizona professor and co-author. The study was conducted by Cornell, the University of Arizona and the U.S. Geological Survey.