Republican Joni Ernst led Democrat Bruce Braley by 7 points, 51-44, in the latest Iowa Poll of the Des Moines Register. It was Ernst’s largest lead in any poll in a month. The Register quoted Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll, as saying, “This race looks like it’s decided.”
Ernst led in all regions of the state and independent voters were swinging her way. Voters tended to agree with Braley on issues but found Ernst the more appealing person. The biggest error of the campaign, said the Register, was Braley’s suggestion popular Sen Chuck Grassley, “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree,” was unqualified to be Senate Judiciary chairman.
Braley’s campaign said the Register’s poll was an “outlier,” when other recent polls show a tossup and Braley was leading in early voting. Pollster’s tracking model says the race is Ernst 47, Braley 44, with a 59 percent probably that Ernst will win.
In Kansas, independent Greg Orman, running for the Senate, said he supports term limits for members of Congress and would ban donations from lobbying groups while Congress is in session, said public broadcaster KCUR-FM. Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, who says he will be Agriculture Committee chairman if the GOP wins control of the Senate, launched a two-day “Take back the Senate” tour on Sunday. The Pollster tracking model shows a dead heat with the candidates tied at 42.
Orman has put $3 million of his own money into the campaign, says the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s two-thirds of his campaign fund.
The Collin Peterson vs Torrey Westrom contest in Minnesota has attracted so much outside money, $8.6 million, it ranks 12th in that nation, an Associated Press story mentions in passing. Peterson is the Democratic leader on the House Agriculture Committee and played a significant role in the 2014 farm law.
Three members of the House Agriculture Committee are on Roll Call’s list of “10 most vulnerable House incumbents;” No 1, Bill Enyart, Democrat, southern Illinois, No 9, Rick Nolan, Democrat, northeastern Minnesota, and No 10 Vance McAllister, Republican, Louisiana. Florida Republican Steve Southerland, proponent of large food-stamp cuts, is No 5.
Alabama and Mississippi vote on “right to hunt” initiatives on Tuesday, says the New York Times.