Sabato’s Crystal Ball says the path to re-election is a bit easier for four members of the House Agriculture Committee — Democrats Antonio Delgado of New York State, Josh Harder of California and Kim Schrier of Washington State, and Republican Mike Bost of Illinois — and a bit rockier for Republican Jim Hagedorn of California. The political handicapping newsletter said Democrats are favored to retain control of the House in the Nov. 3 general elections but a highly nationalized election could give Republicans a chance.
In a series of ratings changes, the Crystal Ball said Bost’s district was “safe Republican.” It said Delgado was a narrow favorite and listed his race as “leans Democratic.” Harder and Schrier were rated as “likely Democratic” because Republicans “do not appear to have landed top-tier candidates” against them. Hagedorn trails in fundraising to Dan Feehan, who is making a repeat run, and his seat was down-graded to “leans Republican.”
Republicans need to gain 20 seats to gain a majority in the House. “The Trump-won districts held by Democrats provide a path to reaching that number … if Trump wins again,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball. Democrats hold 30 seats in districts that voted for President Trump in 2016.
Control of the House could be decided in “presidentially marginal districts,” such as those represented by Agriculture Committee members DelGado, Cindy Axne of Iowa, Abagail Spanberger of Virginia and half-a-dozen other Democrats, said the Crystal Ball. It listed 15 toss-up races, including House Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson and panelists Anthony Brindisi, a New York Democrat, and Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican.
The Cook Political Report, like the Crystal Ball, says Democrats are favored at present to win a majority in November. It lists 26 toss-up races, including five members of the Agriculture Committee: Democrats Peterson, Axne, DelGado and Brindisi, as well as Republican Rodney Davis, from central Illinois.