The National Weather Service sees an increased likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern developing by this summer and through the rest of the year. “Despite this greater model consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Nino will develop and how strong it will be,” said the NWS Climate Prediction Center on Thursday. Probablities are 52 pct of El Nino in the June-August period and above 60 pct in the August-October quarter and beyond.
El Nino, a global phenomenon caused by warmer than usual water in the Southern Pacific Ocean, tends to bring milder-than-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal summers to the U.S. Midwest, says Reuters. A rainy summer would help the western Corn Belt, which is recovering from drought. The eastern Corn Belt is saturated from a long, snow winter.
California, in the third year of drought, could get more rain than usual.
The last El Nino pattern was in 2009 and 2010, says Bloomberg.
The weekly Drought Monitor says conditions improved slightly in the past week, with rainfall in the western Corn Belt a leading factor. More rainfall is likely in the week ahead in the Midwest.