The International Grains Council said its forecast of a record-large global rice crop “is tentative, especially given uncertainty about the impact of El Nino on crops in Asia.” The El Nino weather pattern often brings a drier than usual growing season to Southeast Asia – a key rice area – and wheat-growing Australia, while dumping rain on South America and the U.S. South. Even with a record harvest, which IGC estimates at 481 million tonnes, the global stockpile of rice is forecast to shrink by 7 percent during 2015/16, to the smallest “carry-over” in six years, thanks to strong demand in Asia and Africa.
Corn production will fall by nearly 4 percent, soybeans by almost 2 percent and wheat by 1 percent from 2014’s levels, said IGC, but harvests still would be large and supplies ample. Even with a modest draw-down of inventories, “the ratio of stocks to use will remain comfortable.”