In three weeks, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have killed more than 4 percent of the egg-laying chickens in America. “Egg availability may be limited leading into Easter,” traditionally a high-demand period for eggs, said analysts at rural lender CoBank.
“Consumers are likely to absorb some of the cost increases as they seek to fill their baskets with eggs prior to Easter,” said a CoBank research brief. “The latest blow to U.S. egg supplies is the worst outbreak of HPAI in years. “With USDA reporting new cases almost daily … estimating the total losses is challenging.” Easter is April 17.
Losses of laying hens jumped more than 40 percent over the weekend to 16.8 million, with the discovery of high path bird flu on an egg farm with 5 million hens in Osceola County, in northwestern Iowa on the border with Minnesota.
Iowa, the No. 1 egg state, lost more than a quarter of its laying hens, 12.75 million hens, to HPAI since March 10, according to USDA data. The Hawkeye State had 45.2 million layers in February, before the outbreaks. High path bird flu can wipe out a flock quickly so agricultural officials are ruthless in culling infected flocks in hopes of preventing the spread of the viral disease.
More than 50 million birds, mostly chickens and turkeys, died in a bird flu epidemic in 2014-15, including 12 percent of U.S. egg-laying hens, which created egg shortages in grocery stores. Iowa and Minnesota, No. 1 in turkeys, were hit the hardest by the epidemic.
On Sunday, the USDA said HPAI was confirmed at a pheasant farm in Erath County, Texas, around 70 miles southwest of Fort Worth. Texas was the 23rd state with a bird flu outbreak in domestic flocks. The disease has been found as far west as Wyoming, as far north as North Dakota and as far east as Maine and North Carolina.
Overall, 22.4 million birds have died in this year’s outbreaks, including 16.8 million laying hens and 1.7 million turkeys, according to USDA data.
“Wholesale prices for cartoned eggs continue to rise over concerns about the potential impact of avian influenza on supply ahead of Easter,” said USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service in a weekly report on egg demand. It listed 310.4 million hens laying eggs for table consumption. The monthly Chickens and Eggs report said there were 322.6 million hens in the table-egg layer flock before the bird flu outbreaks reached egg farms.
“The U.S. layer flock typically expands ahead of the surge in demand for Easter and contracts during the summer months,” said CoBank economist Brian Earnest. “But recent losses due to HPAI has combined with high feed costs and other challenges that are severely limiting flock size management.”
U.S. egg production is below pre-pandemic levels, said CoBank. The egg industry was unable to adjust quickly to the loss of sales to restaurants and other food-service outlets when the pandemic hits in March 2020 and was still rebuilding. “Compounding the pandemic challenges, producers also faced increased input costs of grain, energy and transportation.”