Little precipitation has fallen during California’s traditional wet season, so drought is likely across the state during the spring, said the National Weather Service. Drought was also expected to expand in Texas and the southern Plains, a key region for the winter wheat crop, according to the NWS Seasonal Drought Outlook and a three-month NWS forecast of hotter-than-usual weather across the southern half of the United States.
“Development of drought is likely across parts of California and the Great Basin during the next 3 months, plus areas of Texas and the Southeast,” tweeted the NWS Climate Prediction Center in summarizing the outlook for March, April, and May. Below-normal precipitation was forecast from California to the southern Plains, including much of Kansas, the No. 1 winter wheat state. The USDA’s Ag in Drought map said 42 percent of winter wheat territory was in drought.
“The odds for California to get to near-normal precipitation this Water Year are rapidly diminishing as the wet season normally ends in April,” said the Seasonal Drought Outlook. California, the leading U.S. state for milk, fruit, and vegetables, endured a five-year drought that was punctuated by exceptionally high precipitation last year.
The portion of the country in drought has nearly tripled, to 36 percent, in the past three months. According to the weekly Drought Monitor, the largest and most intense area of drought is in northern Texas, the western half of Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas. Those areas are considered to be in extreme drought, one step from the direst rating of exceptional drought. Moderate and severe drought, the lowest two ratings on the four-point scale, are in effect in most of the Dakotas, which are important in durum and spring wheat.