When the winter wheat crop breaks dormancy over the next few weeks, it will face arid conditions in the central and southern Plains due to an extraordinarily dry winter, said senior agricultural meteorologist Don Keeney of Radiant Solutions. “The very dry conditions will allow crop conditions to deteriorate further.”
Some 39 percent of winter wheat territory nationwide is in drought, including 79 percent of Kansas, the No. 1 producer, 98 percent of Oklahoma, and 86 percent of Texas, according to the USDA. Between them, the three states grow one-third of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
In the face of low prices, growers planted 32.6 million acres of winter wheat this year, the smallest sowings in 109 years. Winter wheat, the dominant type of wheat grown in the United States, is sown in the fall, lies dormant during the winter, and re-sprouts in the spring. It is then harvested before the hot, dry summer arrives. Hard red winter wheat, grown in the Plains, is used to make bread and rolls.
This has been the driest winter on record in Garden City and one of the driest ever in Dodge City, both in western Kansas, as well as the driest on record in Amarillo, in the Texas panhandle, said Radiant Solutions, a consulting company. “The forecast for the next three weeks shows more of the same, with moisture receipts expected to remain well below normal for these areas,” said Keeney, referring to the central and southern Plains.
The weekly Drought Monitor shows extreme drought in northern Texas, the western half of Oklahoma, and the southwestern corner of Kansas. Moderate drought covers the western two-thirds of North Dakota, the No. 1 state for durum and spring-planted wheat. North Dakota routinely vies with Kansas as the largest wheat producer.
The National Weather Service forecasts that March will be hotter than usual in the Southwest and in the southern and central Plains, with below-average rainfall in New Mexico, Colorado, western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The Midwest is likely to see a warm March with more precipitation than average.