Analysts are chewing over the arcane Crop Acreage Data page posted by USDA in hopes of a clearer picture of this fall’s corn and soybean harvests. The acreage data is compiled by a different agency than USDA’s crop forecasting arm and is incomplete. All the same, the data can be compared to previous years at this point in the growing season to project total plantings. While analysts disagree, they say the data indicate corn and soybean plantings each are at least 1 million acres smaller than USDA reported in June.
If they’re correct, the U.S. corn crop will be huge, but not a record-setter without phenomenal yields. If plantings are 1 milliion acres smaller than USDA’s estimate, the harvest would be 153 million bushels smaller. At least one private consultant says plantings will turn out to be 2.5 million acres smaller, meaning a harvest that is 400 million bushels below USDA’s estimate of 14.032 billion bushels. The record is 13.925 billion bushels in 2013. The soybean crop could be 70 million bushels smaller, says that consultant. It still would set a record. USDA updates the acreage page monthly with the next update due on Sept. 15.
The Pro Farmer crop tour hits the road today. Its teams of scouts will assess corn and soybean crops in seven major states – Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota – to produce an estimate of the crops on Thursday.