Some 35 percent of rural counties are losing population, many of them in the Great Plains, and an equal portion are growing, say two University of New Hampshire researchers. “Depopulation seemingly is now built into the demographic fabric of some parts of rural America,” write demographer Kenneth Johnson and policy fellow Daniel Lichter. “Yet, depopulation is far from universal.”
Growing counties tend to be close to cities or are recreational or retirement centers that attract tourists, retirees and businesses. Depopulation is prevalent in remote counties. “More than 80 percent of all rural farm counties are depopulating,” a result of mechanization and farm consolidation that reduces the need for labor, says the issue brief, “Rural depopulation in a rapidly urbanizing America.”
Rural America lost population for the first time ever following the recession a decade ago. Even among counties that reached population peaks in 2010, only 56 percent gained population through 2016, underscoring the “demographic and economic headwinds that non-metropolitan America faces,” said Johnson and Lichter.
They cite three possible responses to depopulation, each with political challenges. One is to encourage growth in regional centers with the expectation that surrounding rural areas will benefit too. Another is to cold-heartedly focus on counties most likely to prosper and ignore the others. A third response is “promote receptiveness to immigration” to build population and expand a community’s economic and social resources. “It is past time to refocus our attention on the rural people and places left behind,” say the authors.
For their analysis for the Carsey School of Public Policy, Johnson and Lichter sorted counties into three groups; those that reached peak population by 1950 and lost at least 25 percent of residents by 2010; a second group that had a larger population in 2010 than ever before; and a third group that reached peak population after 1950 or lost less than 25 percent of population by 2010.