Crop scouts reported strong potential corn yields in southwestern Iowa and the northern half of Illinois as the annual Pro Farmer crop tour headed toward release today of an estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean crops. With some final spot-checks today, the tour wraps up inspection of condition in the seven leading corn states. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota produce 70 percent of the corn crop.
DTN said corn yields averaged 169.3 bushels an acre on a route through southwestern Iowa. In central and northern Illinois, scouts said fields averaged 171.7 bushels an acre.
USDA has forecast a record U.S. average corn yield of 167.4 bushels an acre this year and many traders believe the figure will be higher, given the generally trouble-free growing season. In farm country, the attitude is summarized in the adage “big crops get bigger.” (The corollary is “small crops get smaller.”)
Economists Scott Irwin, Darrel Good and John Newton poke a hole in the adage in an analysis at farmdoc daily. There is no correlation between USDA’s initial estimate of corn yields and the final figure in January, say the economists from the University of Illinois. Nor has weather this summer aligned well with past years when yields were exceptional, they say. “These results do not imply that the U.S. average corn yield this year will not be large and will not increase, only that such outcomes would be highly unique given the nature of the growing season.”
For people watching for a signal, the trio says USDA’s September yield estimate is an indicator of which way yields are headed – higher or lower – but it offers little guidance for how much higher or lower the yield will be in the end.