One of the strongest El Niño weather patterns in half a century is bringing the second consecutive year of low rainfall and high temperatures to southern Africa, humanitarian agencies report. They warn that food shortages could be the worst since a 2002-03 food crisis.
Drought has delayed or prevented planting of crops and stunted the plants that have sprouted. “The combination of a poor 2014-2015 season, an extremely dry early season (October to December) and forecasts for continuing hot and drier-than-average conditions through mid-2016, suggest a scenario of extensive, regional-scale crop failure,” said the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the European Commission’s Joint Research Center, and the UN’s World Food Program and Food and Agriculture Organization.
Food prices have soared following the short harvest of 2014-15, when cereal grain output fell 23 percent in the region. The Famine Early Warning System said 2.5 million people need urgent humanitarian assistance. Some 14 million people were classified as food insecure. “The numbers of the food insecure population are now increasing due to the current drought and high market prices (maize prices in South Africa and Malawi were at record highs in January),” said the agencies in a joint statement. “Over the coming year, humanitarian partners should prepare themselves for food insecurity levels and food insecure population numbers in southern Africa to be at their highest levels since the 2002-2003 food crisis.”
South Africa has forecast a corn crop of 7.4 million tonnes this year, two-thirds of average. The USDA estimates the crop at 7 million tonnes due to the lack of rainfall. “Satellite imagery indicates the crop has failed to emerge across significant western parts of the corn belt. Sorghum yields are also reduced, trimming production prospects,” said the monthly Feed Outlook.