Cotton is becoming more price-competitive against petroleum-based polyester, which should boost global demand for the field-grown fiber. But it won’t stop a build-up of cotton supplies, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee.
“While mill use is rising, stocks will continue to grow as production outpaces consumption,” said the ICAC, an intergovernmental body in a monthly report. “The gap between cotton prices and polyester prices has continued to narrow since mid-2017 despite a recent upturn in cotton prices that may push cotton consumption higher.”
The ICAC forecasts moderate growth in mill use of cotton in India, Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Brazil and marginal growth in China, the world’s leading cotton consumer. Although cotton consumption is forecast to rise by 3 percent during 2017/18, so would the global stockpile, the result of an 11 percent expansion in cotton plantings and an expected 12 percent spurt in production.
The USDA says this year’s U.S. cotton crop will be the fourth-largest on record and will more than double the size of the U.S. carry-over supply. Growers are projected to reduce plantings by 11 percent in 2018, to 11.2 million acres in the face of falling prices and large supplies.