Arkansas Sen Mark Pryor’s chances are fading against Republican Tom Cotton, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball, adding “it’s increasingly hard to see him overcoming Arkansas’ hard shift to the right. We’re upgrading Cotton’s chances from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Republicans are hopeful that they’ve put this one away, and the trend line for Democrats is not good.” A Democrat, Pryor is chair of the Appropriations subcommittee on agriculture. He has scored Cotton for voting against the 2014 farm bill. Cotton responded by saying it was a food stamps bill.
Cotton expanded his lead over Pryor to 8 points, 49-41, with 6 percent undecided in a telephone poll of likely voters following two televised debates last week, said a Talk Business/Hendrix College poll. In July, the same polling group said Cotton led by 2 points. Men strongly support Cotton and he leads in all age groups except young voters, said Jay Barth, political science professor at Hendrix.
Pollster’s tracking model say Cotton leads 47-44 with a 58 percent probability of winning.
There are closely fought races in three of Iowa’s four House districts, says the Crystal Ball. One of them is a toss-up – the Third District, where Republican Tom Latham is retiring. Democrat Staci Appel, a state senator, faces Republican David Young, a former congressional aide in the district that covers the southwestern quadrant of the state and includes the state capital of Des Moines.
The Crystal Ball revised its ratings in the Second District in southeastern Iowa to “leans Democratic” from “likely Democratic.” Incumbent Democrat Dave Loebsack is challenged by Republican Mariannette Miller-Meek, former director of the state Department of Health. In the First District in northeastern Iowa, Democrat Patrick Murphy faces Republican Rod Blum in a race rated as “leans Democatic” by the Crystal Ball. “Democrats now appear concerned that state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is doing well enough in her race (for Senate) that it could hurt Democratic prospects in the state’s two Democratic-leaning eastern congressional districts,” says the Crystal Ball.
Says Roll Call, “House Democrats almost solely blame Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democratic nominee for Senate, for dragging down the ticket” in the two congressional districts.
Vice President Joe Biden campaigned in Minnesota’s Iron Ore range for first-term Democrat Rick Nolan, a House Agriculture Committee member, in a race with wealthy businessman Stewart Mills that is rated as a toss-up. “The race is one of the country’s top five in terms of outside spending,” says Associated Press. In Democrat-leaning Hibbing, Biden implored. “Get out the vote. We cannot afford to lose this race,” said AP.