Corn inventories are big but not burdensome
The global corn carry-over is forecast to climb by nearly 10 percent this marketing year, to 189.9 million tonnes, according to USDA estimates. David Widmar of the blog Agricultural Economic Insights says it would be the largest inventory in 15 years, since 194.4 million tonnes at the end of 1999/2000, and the fifth-largest on record. But it would equal 19.6 percent of consumption, a manageable level, writes Widmar, when the stocks-to-use ratio was above 30 percent in 1999/2000.That said, the ratio has risen for the past five years. “If this doesn’t abate either through greater demand of reduced supplies it’s hard to paint a rosy picture for corn prices,” concludes Widmar. “Time will tell.”
After a nearly ideal growing season, the U.S. corn and soybean crops, planted slightly later than usual, are maturing behind average, said the weekly Crop Progress report. As of Sunday, 42 percent of corn was mature, 12 points behind the five-year average, and 45 percent of soybeans were dropping leaves, 8 points behind average. Seven percent of corn and 3 percent of soybeans were harvested. Usually by the last week of September, 15 percent of the corn crop and 8 percent of soybeans are in the bin, said USDA.