Competition from South America will crimp U.S. corn and soybean exports over the summer, according to a forecast by the Agriculture Department in its monthly WASDE report. USDA analysts said corn exports would be 3-percent smaller and soybean exports nearly 1-percent smaller than estimated a month ago, based on a slowdown in shipments this spring.
Wheat exports were 3 percent, or 25 million bushels, smaller during the marketing year that ended May 31 than they were in the preceding 2021/22 marketing year. Exports were forecast to contract again this marketing year, to 725 million bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels in 2022/23.
Corn, soybeans, and wheat are the three most widely grown crops in the country.
The USDA forecast corn exports of 1.725 billion bushels and soybean exports of 2 billion bushels during the current marketing year, which ends in late summer when harvest of this year’s crops begins. The corn estimate was 50-million bushels smaller and the soybean export figure was 15-million bushels smaller than the previous marketing year.
In the WASDE report, USDA said the corn estimate was reduced on the basis of Census Bureau data about April and May exports plus “expectations of competition from Brazil in coming months.” For soybeans, the reduction was based on “lower-than-expected shipments during May and competition from South America.”
Springtime rains improved the prospects for the U.S. cotton crop, now forecast at 16.5 million bales, up 1 million bales from the May estimate, said the USDA. Last year, drought limited the crop to 14.47 million bales weighing 480 pounds apiece, the smallest harvest in seven years.