The season-average prices for most U.S. agricultural commodities are on a decline that could persist into 2026, said a report from the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri. Global economic growth has slowed after a heady recovery from the pandemic in 2021, and world grain production is up this year, creating more competition for U.S. crops.
“Many of the factors that pushed prices of several agricultural commodities to record or near‐record levels in 2022 have reversed, or at least moderated, in 2023,” said FAPRI in an updated agricultural baseline for the years through 2028. With the exception of beef, commodity prices are lower this year, and they could continue to fall in the near term.
“New information about the size of the 2023 crop, the war in Ukraine, and other factors will alter the outlook, perhaps in important ways,” cautioned FAPRI. Commodity prices spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 but receded in the following months as global supply chains adjusted to reduced wheat, corn, and sunflower oil exports from Ukraine.
A week ago, the USDA forecast that net farm income, while remaining far above average, would decline sharply this year due chiefly to a $29 billion increase in expenses and a $23 billion drop in revenue from crop and livestock sales. FAPRI said it would issue a separate report on the farm income implications of its projections of lower commodity prices.
The 2022 wheat crop sold for an average of $8.83 a bushel, a record. But this year’s crop will fetch an average of $7.58 a bushel, and the season-average price for the 2024 crop would fall to $6.33 a bushel, said FAPRI, with prices stabilizing at around $5.80 a bushel in 2026.
Corn production was forecast to rebound this year and push down market prices. FAPRI estimated a season-average price of $4.94 a bushel for this year’s crop, drifting downward to around $4.25 a bushel in 2026. By comparison, the 2022 crop sold for an average of $6.60 a bushel, the second-highest price ever.
“The proportional decline in soybean prices is smaller, from $14.20 per bushel for the 2022/23 crop to $12.88 in 2023/24,” said FAPRI. It projected a season-average price of $10.94 for the 2024 crop.
“Cotton prices are supported by a second consecutive year of reduced U.S. cotton production, as prices dip only slightly in 2023/24,” said the report. This year’s season-average price for upland cotton, the dominant variety, was forecast at 79.3 cents per pound by FAPRI.
Corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton are the most widely planted U.S. crops. Growers will plant 4 percent more soybeans in 2024 while scaling back on corn plantings by 3 percent and wheat plantings by 2 percent, said FAPRI. Upland cotton plantings would expand by 1 percent.
Drought in the Plains has reduced the cattle inventory and pushed up prices for slaughter cattle. Steer prices would rise 24 percent this year on the way to peaking at $189 per 100 pounds in 2025, said FAPRI. Hog prices would fall 16 percent this year before recovering slowly. Poultry and milk prices also would fall this year and in 2024.
The FAPRI report, Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets, is available here.