Climate change could “cut the global area suitable for coffee production by as much as 50 percent by 2050,” largely because of drought and higher temperatures, says a report by the Climate Institute.
Of the 25 million coffee farmers around the world, many are small landholders living in countries that are among the most vulnerable to climate change, including Vietnam, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Major retailers like Starbucks have already warned that their customers could see supply shortages, according to the Climate Institute.
The report notes that the best approach would be to shift production to more diverse and resilient farming systems, as well as to move plantations to higher elevations, where temperatures might be lower. But the reality is that most farmers are using aggressive inputs to get more out of their land. Even in an ideal scenario, many growers will likely be forced to leave coffee production, says the Climate Institute.
NPR reported from São Gabriel da Palha, Brazil, where three years of drought in the country’s coffee belt has killed up to 90 percent of the crop on some plantations. Local deforestation also has made it harder for the ground to absorb water, exacerbating the low rainfall. According to coffee farmer Naygney Assu’s records, the area received an average of 51 inches of rain over the last 17 years. During the last three, the annual average fell to 15.7 inches. “To be honest, I don’t see a future,” Assu told NPR.