Governments are likely underestimating the risks of climate change to agriculture, especially in the event of simultaneous extreme weather events in key areas, say researchers from the U.K.’s Met office.
Using 1,400 climate model simulations, the researchers discovered that the probability of severe drought was greater than if judged solely from observations.
“The group found there is a 6 percent chance every decade that a simultaneous failure in maize production could occur in China and the US – the world’s main growers – which would result in widespread misery, particularly in Africa and south Asia, where maize is consumed directly as food,” explains The Guardian.
The researchers say that such a joint crop failure would be far worse than the already dire famines that occurred last year in Zambia, Congo, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar.