Three of every 10 acres of U.S. corn and winter wheat are under increased threat as climate change boosts temperatures and makes rainfall more erratic in the Midwest and Plains, said new report on Tuesday. Commissioned by the American Farmland Trust, the report said the 2023 farm bill should embrace climate mitigation and provide the money to help farmers adapt to global warming.
“While all sectors have a role to play in solving the climate crisis, agriculture is a sector that can play a dual role by reducing its own (greenhouse gas) emissions and by drawing existing carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to slow climate change,” said the report, Projected Climate Impacts on the Growing Conditions for Rainfed Agriculture in the Contiguous United States.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise rapidly, 31 percent of corn and 30 percent of wheat land face adverse changes in growing conditions by 2040, said the report. “On a high-emissions trajectory, only 33 percent of corn acres in 2040 are likely to remain highly productive with current management practices.”
Over 80 percent of cropland in the 48 contiguous states relies on timely rainfall to produce crops. “With rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, the crops and businesses supported by these rainfed crops are increasingly at risk,” said the report said. “Future crop production will likely face more frequent extreme weather events like destructive winds, hail, frost damage, droughts, extended heat waves and torrential downpours, as well as increased damage due to crop pests and diseases.”
The report paralleled a warning by the Environmental Defense Fund last October that “climate change threatens to slow or reverse” the steady gains in productivity enjoyed for decades by corn, soybean and wheat growers. “In many of the most productive agricultural counties in the United States, higher temperatures and changes in rainfall will lower yields of staple crops below what technological innovations and improvements in management practices can recoup,” said the EDF.
In the new report, the AFT urged Congress to revise the land stewardship and crop insurance portions of the farm bill to improve resilience and reduce the risk of climate damage on the farm and to create a federal matching fund to bolster innovative state soil health programs.
“Practices like planting cover crops, adopting zero or reduced tillage, and diversifying crop rotations can improve the soils physical and biological functions and its ability to sequester carbon,” said a summary of the report. “Croplands managed for soil health are more resilient to a changing climate; they are less vulnerable to erosion, have increased water-holding capacity during drought, support crop yield stability and — in many cases — sequester carbon.”
The AFT report is available here.