Global fisheries could see $10 billion losses in annual revenue if climate change goes unchecked, says a University of British Columbia study published in Scientific Reports. That is a 35 percent greater drop than current projections for catches by the 2050s under high CO2-emmissions scenarios, say the authors.
While other studies have suggested that catches will increase at northern latitudes, the UBC researchers point out that the increase may be offset by low-value species, and so not result in higher revenues. Greenland, for example, stands to see a 50 percent increase in overall catch by the middle of the century. But the country’s fishing revenues will likely only rise by 19 percent, since money-making species like Atlantic salmon and European plaice are predicted to fall in number by 70 percent and 64 percent, respectively.
Fishing fleets may also have to travel farther to bring in their catch, racking up costs. And once they arrive, the fish may be smaller, since warmer ocean temperatures can stunt their growth. As the distribution of fish changes, developing nations in the Central Pacific and Central Atlantic, like Kiribati and Tuvalu, will see the greatest negative impact, according to the study. In the Arctic, where melting sea ice will offer new fishing opportunities, local subsistence and artisanal fleets will see more competition from industrial boats.
Nor will aquaculture be a saving grace. “Climate adaptation programs such as aquaculture development may be seen as a solution,” said William Cheung, associate professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and a study co-author in a release. “However, rather than easing the financial burden of fishing losses and improving food security, it may drive down the price of seafood, leading to further decreases in fisheries revenues.”
The study points out that if emissions can be kept to a low-level increase scenario, the damage to the world’s fishing $100 billion industry would be slightly less, at $7 billion.