More than 1 billion bushels of U.S. soybeans are likely to be shipped to China during the current marketing year, say economists John Newton and Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois, who ask, “Are all our beans in one basket?” Writing at farmdoc daily, Newton and Keuthe say sales to China will constitute the equivalent of a quarter-acre from each acre of soybeans harvested in the United States. At the same time that exports to China have soared, fewer soybeans are being sold to traditional customers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
“Recent reports suggest that Chinese soybean imports could be tested by tighter soybean crushing margins,” according to the two economists. On the other hand, the World Bank forecasts an annual growth rate of 6.9 percent or higher in China through 2017. “These projections support China maintaining soybean consumption at or above current levels. Competition, then, with other major soybean exporters (i.e. Argentina and Brazil) would be important for U.S. producers to monitor.”