China “is expected to remain the largest destination for U.S. agricultural products for the fifth consecutive year” even though its purchases will drop by $2 billion, to $23.6 billion, this year, said the USDA’s chief economist Robert Johansson at the Outlook Forum. China buys nearly one-fifth of U.S. farm exports. Canada is the No. 2 market at $21.8 billion, and Mexico is third at $18.7 billion, followed by Japan and Europe.
The world’s largest importer of soybeans and cotton, China is expected to limit its corn imports “to prevent its corn stockpile from growing even larger and to dispose of (large domestic) stocks,” said Johansson. “China’s annual imports of distillers dried grains of approximately 5 million tonnes now exceed its imports of corn.”
“Similarly, China now purchases the majority of U.S. sorghum and significant amounts of barley. The USDA projects that China’s recent increases in sorghum and barley imports – used mainly as feed – will continue in the future,” said Johansson. U.S. sorghum exports are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, the highest in nearly 25 years, because of Chinese purchases.
Overall, U.S. agricultural exports are forecast for $141.5 billion this year, down 7 percent from the record set in 2014. “Most of the reduction in value is due to lower prices for grain and feed exports, as volumes are up for several sectors, including soybeans and soybean products, cotton and rice,” said the USDA.
Exports usually account for 25 cents of each $1 of receipts for farmers and are the outlet for a large part of U.S. production. More than 40 percent of the soybean and wheat crops and two-thirds of the cotton harvest are exported, along with 12 percent of corn.