In the past two decades, China has shifted from a net exporter of agricultural products, with a trade surplus of $2.3 billion, to the world’s largest importer, with a trade deficit of $100 billion, according to a review of Chinese membership in the World Trade Organization. The flood of imports obscures China’s position as the fourth largest ag exporter in the world, trailing the European Union, the United States and Brazil.
Chinese ag exports have grown at an average 8.2 percent a year, compared to the global average of 6.5 percent, wrote author Joe Glauber of the IFPRI think tank. Its leading customers are mostly in East Asia but the EU and the United States perennially rank in the top five. Half of the exports are processed fruits and vegetables and other processed foods.
While exports expanded rapidly, ag imports grew nearly twice as fast, at an average 14 percent a year. China imported a total of $157 billion in farm products in 2020 and was the No. 1 market for most of the world’s major ag exporting nations, such as Brazil, Australia, Canada, Argentina and the United States.
“Population, income growth and increased urbanization has…required China to import an increasingly larger share of its consumption needs. These trends are projected to increase over the next 10 years and likely beyond,” said Glauber in the paper. Membership in WTO was a significant factor in the growth of imports. Trade wars with Canada, Australia and the United States have disrupted world trade and jeopardize the drive for free trade, he said.
“Time will tell whether these recent trends will be reversed but growing China food demand will likely keep pressures on the China government to keep markets open to agricultural imports,” concluded Glauber in the paper presented at a forum on China and the WTO.
The paper, “China’s accession to the WTO and its impact on global agricultural trade,” is available here.