NOAA has shelved its La Niña watch because its forecasters see little prospect for the weather pattern, somewhat of a mirror to the better-known El Niño, for the next six months. In June, La Niña chances were 75 percent but they are now 40 percent because air and water temperatures in the southern Pacific Ocean are relatively neutral between the two weather patterns.
“Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral … and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter,” said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in a blog. “There are many pathways that the climate system can follow after a large El Niño event,” said the blog, citing instance in which La Niña appeared immediately after El Niño and in which a year passed before a La Niña pattern appeared.
La Niñas occur every two to seven years and typically bring dry weather to crop-growing regions of South America and stronger monsoons to India, said Reuters.