There is only a 5 percent chance that efforts to keep the global temperature increase under 2 degrees Celsius between now and the end of the century — the goal of the Paris climate deal — will succeed, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The agreement also committed to a more “aspirational goal” of limiting warming to 1.5C, but this target is “barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C,” says The Guardian.
The new research is based on an analysis of world population trends, per capita gross GDP, and carbon intensity — the “amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each dollar of economic activity,” according to The Guardian.
The study’s authors, from the University of Washington, said there is a 90-percent chance that global temperatures will increase between 2C and 4.9C by 2100, which would result in what they described as “mid-range” warming scenarios — neither the worst case nor the best.
Donald Trump announced his intention in June to remove the U.S. from participation in the Paris treaty.