Prices for cereal, flour and bakery items will finish the year unchanged from 2013, an indirect effect of record wheat crops worldwide, according to government forecasts, and pork prices will fall by 15 percent in the new year after soaring this year. “Many items in the center aisles of grocery stores/supermarkets have seen lower than average inflation or even deflation year-over-year,” said USDA in its food price report. USDA fine-tuned its forecast of food inflation, setting it at 2.75 percent for this year, down slightly from the previous 3 percent. It forecasts food prices will rise by 2.5 percent in the new year, on track with the 20-year average of 2.6 percent.
Pork prices are up 10 percent from the 2013 average, “largely due to the effect of PEDv (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus), which has reduced the autumn number of hogs ready for production,” said USDA. “However, there are signs of industry expansion and prices are expected to fall 15 percent below 2014 figures.” Poultry production is up, so poultry meat prices are expected to rise by a mild 2 percent this year, well below the average of 2.7 percent. Beef prices are forecast to rise by 11.5 percent this year, reflecting the historically small cattle inventory.
Grocery store prices for ground beef rose by 5 cents per lb to average $4.20 in November, says the site beef2live. “This is the highest price for ground beef on record. This is the fourth month in a row that retail ground beef prices have been over $4,” says beef2live. A year earlier, ground beef cost $3.48.