The upturn in U.S. cattle numbers “is likely to continue for multiple years,” writes Chris Hurt of Purdue in an analysis of the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle inventory report. As of Jan. 1, cattle numbers are up 1 percent and cow-calf producers are ramping up their breeding stock. “It is common for the beef herd to be in expansion for four to six years. With 2014 registering as the first year of expansion, expansion could continue through most of this decade. If so, peak beef production on this cycle would not be expected until early in the next decade,” says Hurt at farmdoc daily.
Beef prices are at record levels in grocery stores due to tight supplies. Hurt says the pinch may not be as severe as the USDA has forecast for this year. Feedlots boosted the weight of slaughter cattle in the past couple of months. “With feed prices in 2015 expected to be the lowest in five years, those higher weights will likely continue and beef supplies for 2015 could be in a range from down 1 percent to up 1 percent [compared to a USDA estimate of a 2-percent drop],” says Hurt.