An expansionary phase in the U.S. cattle inventory, dating from 2014, is slowing, say USDA analysts, pointing to a financial pinch on the cow-calf ranchers who start the beef production cycle. In its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the USDA says the cattle herd, at 94.8 million head, is slightly — just 0.5 percent — larger than it was at the start of 2018.
The expansion began with attractive returns for cow-calf operators and with good pasture and range conditions in the Plains, where many of the calves are born. “Producers have seen feeder calf prices fall from the record levels of 2014-15 and hay prices climb during 2018,” says the USDA.
“A number of indicators point toward an even lower rate of expansion in 2019,” says the report. Ranchers say they are keeping 3 percent fewer heifers for breeding than a year ago and that the portion of those so-called replacement heifers expected to calve this year is nearly 6 percent smaller than in 2018.