Already the world’s leading soybean and corn supplier, Brazil is on track to pass the United States and become the largest cotton exporter in the very near future,” said the National Cotton Council, an umbrella organization for the U.S. cotton industry. Cotton production and exports are rising in Brazil while U.S. exports are forecast to fall for the second year in a row.
While the United States would remain the No. 1 exporter into summer 2025, “Brazil is just slightly behind the United States in export sales,” said the Cotton Council, which held its annual meeting over the weekend. “The United States will continue to face strong competition from Brazil. Given the recent trends in exports from the two countries, Brazil is on track to become the largest cotton exporter in the very near future.”
Agriculture Department analysts were more sanguine. They said, “Brazil remains second through 2033/34,” the final year of their 10-year agricultural baseline, which was released last week. The U.S. share of the world market would drop to 32 percent in the 2033/34 marketing year, down by two percentage points from the past decade. Brazil’s share would be 27 percent.
Brazil displaced India five years ago to become the second-largest exporter.
High production costs will discourage U.S. cotton planting this spring despite futures market prices that indicate cotton would return more revenue than corn or soybeans, said Cotton Council economist Jody Campiche at the annual meeting. Growers intend to plant 9.85 million acres of cotton this year, nearly 4 percent less than in 2023, according to a Cotton Council survey conducted from mid-December through mid-January. The survey is widely watched.
Assuming normal weather and yields, the harvest would be 14.6 million bales, weighing 480 pounds each, a big step up from the drought-hit crop of 12.43 million bales in 2023, projected the Cotton Council.
In contrast, the USDA projected a crop of 16 million bales from plantings of 11 million acres, assuming normal weather and average yield. Like the Cotton Council, the USDA pointed to more attractive futures prices for cotton than for soybean and corn. The projections were based on market conditions in early February. Exports from this year’s crop would total 13.8 million bales.
“Increased competition from foreign manufacturing of both cotton and synthetic fibers — such as polyester — is expected to keep U.S. cotton mill use at its lowest level since the 1880s,” said the USDA in its Cotton Outlook. Mill use was projected at 11 percent of U.S. cotton demand; the bulk of the crop is exported.
The Cotton Council said U.S. textile manufacturing remained under pressure from imports: “Between August and December 2023, eight U.S. textile manufacturing facilities shut down operation.”